Sweltering streets. Record-breaking June temperatures. Summer 2021 had barely begun and the Pacific coast from Canada to California was already being ravaged by heatwaves and wildfires, driven by a ‘heat dome’ of high pressure.1 In Australia, however, wetter-than-average conditions saw the release of a report that cautiously predicts a less devastating fire season in the coming months, compared to recent years.

But with the climate heating up, shouldn’t we expect fires everywhere to worsen every year? Well, things aren’t quite that simple. The warming climate raises the risks of fires by increasing the likelihood of long, hot spells of weather that dry out vegetation, turning swathes of grassland and forest into potential fuel.