For economists, searching for the next crisis out there in the real world is like looking for a needle in a haystack. It may make more sense to look for the causes of a future crisis from within the actions of policymakers rather than bankers.

Among these causes, what has become known as the ‘great unwind’ – the phenomenon whereby almost every major economy is planning to raise interest rates at the same time – stands out as one of the most risky and uncertain human-made events of modern times.