There is little doubt that Vladimir Putin, standing for a fourth and likely final term in this month’s presidential election, will win. But Russian elections are not about the result. They are about calibrating the ruling government’s degree of legitimacy. And this time Putin’s campaign has been dented by a challenger he can’t seem to deter, Alexey Navalny. The Supreme Court recently upheld a ban on Navalny from standing, due to a previous fraud conviction, but he has continued campaigning, calling for a boycott of the elections and threatening to spoil Putin’s swan song.
Best known for his anti-corruption blogging, Navalny commands a loyal following, with tech-savvy supporters helping spread the message of his boycott online. He is, however, no liberal or friend of the Left. Lurking behind the generous representation of Navalny in the Western press is an ideologically flexible populist. Left Front activist Alexey Sakhnin labels him ‘Russia’s Trump’, for his past participation in ultra-nationalist rallies and racist comments about Muslims. Conservative nationalism remains the most potent mobilizing force in Russian politics, and any alternative to Putin will likely come draped in the national flag.
